Research on High-Level Opening-Up of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Its Driving Factors

Abstract

Based on panel data from 2017 to 2023, this study constructs an evaluation index system encompassing five dimensions—trade, capital, personnel, information, and institutions—to measure the openness level of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). The grey relational analysis model is employed to identify the driving factors behind its openness. The findings reveal that the GBA exhibits an overall pattern characterized by “core-led development, tiered differentiation, and dynamic recovery”: Hong Kong and Shenzhen serve as dual-core open hubs, experiencing a trajectory of “high-level adjustment followed by strong rebound” and steady growth, respectively. In 2023, their openness indices reached 0.5554 and 0.5227. The nine cities in the Pearl River Delta form three tiers, with Guangzhou, Zhuhai, and Dongguan constituting the second tier, while the remaining cities exhibit relatively lower levels of openness. Macao, whose economy is dominated by the gaming and tourism sectors, shows significant fluctuations in its openness index. Analysis of driving factors indicates that industrial structure upgrading serves as the “main engine” for enhancing openness, with services sector liberalization directly facilitating regulatory alignment and cross-border flow of factors. Government regulation plays a “regulatory role” through infrastructure investment and institutional innovation; economic fundamentals provide solid support for openness; the marginal benefits of investment-driven growth are gradually diminishing; and human capital reflects long-term potential, which requires strengthening industry-education integration to unlock its momentum.