Diversification Strategies in African Frontier Markets: An Empirical Back-Testing Approach

Authors

  • Jingtian Lan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/ijgem.v8n1.17

Keywords:

Frontier markets, Africa, Diversification strategy, Portfolio optimization, Risk-return analysis

Abstract

In accordance with the result of the back-test in different diversified portfolios in the African frontier market, African frontier markets provide both potential benefits and challenges, which was reasoned by their different degrees of disintegration and volatility from the global capital market. This study seeks to assess the diversification advantages objectively of African frontier markets using a back-testing methodology. The study employed portfolio optimization strategies to evaluate risk-adjusted returns and inter-market correlations, and it is possible to utilize daily log-returns from ten frontier markets spanning 2015 to 2024. The results indicated that diversity in African frontier markets offers substantial risk mitigation; nevertheless, excessive diversification might impact profits negatively. Aiming to optimize the investment benefits, the decision of investment had a demand to concentrate on balancing the integration degrees in portfolios.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] Dania, R.A. & Maysami, R., 2017. Diversification in Frontier Markets: A Study on Risk and Return. Journal of Financial Economics, 10(2), pp.123–145.

[2] Evans, C. & van Vuuren, G., 2019. Frontier Markets and Portfolio Diversification: An Empirical Analysis. Emerging Markets Review, 25(1), pp.112–130.

[3] Marshall, B.R., Nguyen, N.H. & Visaltanachoti, N., 2015. Frontier market transaction costs and diversification. Journal of Financial Markets, 24, pp.1–24.

[4] Ferreira, P.J.S., Aslam, M.-F. & Mothi, W., 2021. Investigating Efficiency of Frontier Stock Markets Using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(7), pp.1650–1676.

[5] Fifield, S.G.M., Power, D.M. & Sinclair, C.D., 2002. Emerging stock markets: a more realistic assessment of the gains from diversification. Applied Financial Economics, 12(3), pp.213–229.

[6] Phanrattinon, N., Lenbury, Y., Misiran, M. & Phewchean, N., 2020. Weak form market efficiency: A case study of Asia-Pacific markets. NAUN Circuit Systems and Signal. Available at: https://www.naun.org/main/NAUN/circuitssystemssignal/2020/c122005-dam.pdf

[7] Naumoski, A., Gaber, S. & Gaber-Naumoska, V., 2017. Empirical distribution of stock returns of Southeast European emerging markets. UTMS Journal of Economics, 8(2), pp.67–77. Available at: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/195296/1/1011377675.pdf

[8] Guney, Y., Kallinterakis, V. & Komba, G., 2017. Herding in Frontier Markets: Evidence from African Stock Exchanges. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 47, pp.152–175.

[9] IMF (International Monetary Fund), 2021. Frontier Market Integration Trends: A Regional Perspective. IMF Working Paper WP/20/123. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/12/15/Frontier-Markets

[10] Narayan, S.W. & Rehman, M.U., 2018. Portfolio diversification opportunities within emerging and frontier stock markets: Evidence from ten Asian countries. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 21(1), pp.1–22.

[11] Abidi, N., Hacibedel, B. & Nkusu, M., 2019. Frontier and Emerging Markets: A Perspective from Portfolio Flows and Financial Integration. Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, 1(11), pp.19–45.

[12] Pätäri, E., Ahmed, S., John, E. & Karell, V., 2019. The changing role of emerging and frontier markets in global portfolio diversification. Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1701910.

[13] Nguyen, K., 2023. Ex-Ante Predictability of Stock Returns in a Frontier Market. Applied Finance Letters, 11, pp.135–150.

[14] Fama, E.F. & French, K.R., 1992. The cross-section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), pp.427–465. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x

[15] World Bank, 2021. Global Financial Development Report: Frontier Markets and the Post-Crisis Integration Landscape. Washington, DC: World Bank. Namibia Statistics Agency, 2020. Survey of COVID-19 Effect on Selected Businesses in Namibia. Windhoek: Namibia Statistics Agency. Available at: https://surveywarehouse.com.na/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Covid-19-impact-report_09.2020_FINAL.pdf

Downloads

Published

29-08-2025

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Lan, J. (2025). Diversification Strategies in African Frontier Markets: An Empirical Back-Testing Approach. International Journal of Global Economics and Management, 8(1), 147-162. https://doi.org/10.62051/ijgem.v8n1.17