Low-Carbon Development Dilemmas and Differentiated Pathways for Non-Core Cities in China's Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Zone: A Case Study of Nanchong

Abstract

China's dual-carbon strategy calls for all cities to formulate carbon peaking action plans, yet the academic literature overwhelmingly focuses on megacities and core economic centers, leaving the low-carbon transition challenges facing non-core, underdeveloped cities underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by examining Nanchong, a populous yet economically peripheral prefecture-level city in the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Zone (CCEZ), as an in-depth case study. Drawing on Gerschenkron's latecomer advantage theory and the comparative advantage framework, and using publicly available statistical data, government policy documents, and secondary literature, we construct a systematic comparison between Nanchong and the CCEZ's twin core cities (Chengdu and Chongqing) across six analytical dimensions: economic structure, carbon emission profile, energy endowment, industrial innovation capacity, green finance accessibility, and human capital. Our analysis reveals that non-core cities face a distinctive "low-carbon development trilemma" — the simultaneous pressure to industrialize, urbanize, and decarbonize — which core cities have largely resolved sequentially. However, we identify four differentiated low-carbon pathways available to Nanchong that leverage its latecomer status: (1) leapfrogging through new-energy commercial vehicle manufacturing; (2) exploiting natural gas resource endowments for a transitional "grey-to-blue-to-green" hydrogen strategy; (3) green upgrading of the traditional silk industry chain through eco-certification and cultural branding; and (4) utilizing near-zero-carbon industrial park pilots as institutional innovation platforms. We argue that non-core cities need not replicate the carbon-intensive industrialization trajectory of core cities but can pursue "curve-bending" strategies that compress the time between economic take-off and emission peaking. The findings carry implications for similar non-core cities across China's western urban agglomerations and for developing-country cities more broadly.