Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of Social-Ecological System Resilience in Qilian Mountain National Park

Abstract

Scientifically assessing social-ecological system resilience (SESR) in national parks in alpine-arid regions is crucial for to balancing ecological conservation with sustainable development. As a vital ecological security barrier and a sensitive zone for human-nature coupling in western China, the Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNP) necessitates a systematic research of its SESR trends and driver factors. Based on the social-ecological system (SES) framework, this study constructed a multi-criteria indicator system encompassing social, economic, and ecological dimensions. Employing the CRITIC method, three-dimensional Kernel Density Estimation, and the Obstacle Degree Model, we analyzed the temporal evolution, spatial differentiation, and key obstacle factors of SESR in QMNP from 2010 to 2024. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive social-ecological system resilience index (SESRI) of QMNP steadily increased from 0.3645 to 0.4308 from 2010 to 2024, exhibiting a consistent upward trajectory. (2) The spatial pattern evolved from an initially low-level homogeneity to a pronounced "high-west, low-east" differentiation, featuring a high-resilience cluster in the northwest driven and a resilience-lagging zone in the southeast con-strained."(3) Population density, per capita GDP, and net primary productivity (NPP) persisted as the core obstacle factors inhibiting the enhancement of SESR. This study provides a scientific basis and decision-making reference for hierarchical adaptive management and the optimization of sustainable development pathways for national parks in alpine and arid regions.