Spatio-temporal Patterns and Driving Mechanisms of Coupling Coordination Between Urban Resilience and Low-Carbon Development in the Yellow River Basin

Ying An; Jing Bai; Xi Wang

doi:10.62051/ijgem.v10n4.14

Authors

Ying An
Jing Bai
Xi Wang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/ijgem.v10n4.14

Keywords:

Regional coordinated development, Spatial heterogeneity, Mitigation and adaptation, Climate change

Abstract

Against the dual backdrop of intensifying global climate change and the deepening of Sustainable Development Goals, the synergistic advancement of low-carbon transition and resilience building has emerged as a critical pathway for the international community to address complex environmental risks. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system for urban resilience and low-carbon development in the Yellow River Basin. By employing the entropy-weighted TOPSIS model and the coupling coordination degree model, it quantifies the synergy level between urban resilience and low-carbon development in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2021 and reveals its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. Furthermore, Geographic Detector is utilized to identify key driving factors, and finally, the Spatial Durbin Model is applied to explore their spatial effects. The results indicate that from 2006 to 2021, the overall urban resilience level in the Yellow River Basin exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, displaying a spatial gradient pattern where the lower reaches surpass the middle reaches, which in turn exceed the upper reaches. Low-carbon development demonstrated phased acceleration, although the energy transition lagged, with a spatial pattern characterized as "high in the east and low in the central and western regions." The coupling coordination degree between the two increased from 0.29 to 0.45, with regional disparities widening; the lower reaches experienced the fastest improvement and formed high-value agglomeration areas, the middle reaches showed accelerated catch-up growth, while progress in the upper reaches remained sluggish. The effect of the "Low-Carbon City" pilot policy initially declined and subsequently increased, exhibiting siphonic spillovers. Gross Domestic Product and fiscal expenditure emerged as the most dominant driving factors, with the synergy between economy and resources constituting a key impetus. The spatial spillover effects of various factors differ significantly across the upper, middle, and lower reaches as well as among agglomeration types, and the interaction effects of paired factors are substantially stronger than those of single factors. Therefore, systematic synergistic governance represents a crucial pathway for enhancing the level of coupling coordination between urban resilience and low-carbon development in the Yellow River Basin.

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