Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics and Evolutionary Trends of Population Structure in the Pearl River Delta Region: A Comparative Analysis Based on Census Data from 2010 to 2020

Xikun Guan; Zizhao Nie

doi:10.62051/ijgem.v6n3.30

Authors

Xikun Guan
Zizhao Nie

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/ijgem.v6n3.30

Keywords:

Population structure, Population distribution, Spatiotemporal pattern, Spatial autocorrelation, Pearl River Delta Region

Abstract

As the foundational support for socioeconomic progress, regional population structure shapes long-term sustainable development. Using 2010 and 2020 census data for the Pearl River Delta, this study applies a spatiotemporal comparative framework to trace a decade of change in three dimensions: (1) The region is experiencing both declining birth rates and accelerated aging—marked by a shrinking workforce and higher dependency ratios. Worsening gender imbalance reflects delayed effects of past birth policies, selective labor migration, and enduring cultural preferences. (2) Industrial upgrading and rising education levels drive a dual shift. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have become service- and innovation-led post-industrial hubs, while outlying cities remain tied to low-end industries and lagging education, creating a clear development gap. (3) A “core-polarization, periphery-collapse” pattern dominates. Guangzhou and Shenzhen’ s pull on innovation factors intensifies population inflow, whereas peripheral areas like Zhaoqing face outmigration and stagnation. These findings highlight urgent needs to mitigate impending labor and eldercare shortages by refining fertility incentives and care systems; to align industry and education to break structural bottlenecks; and to develop regional coordination policies that ease core-city crowding and invigorate peripheral growth. This evidence underpins a nuanced understanding of multidimensional population-structure dynamics and guides tailored policy design.

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